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#Learning and error
RELEVANT SLIDES: Lecture 4
The learning diagram as we left it:
Now, we are going to expand on it a lot more.
###Error measure: theory
The first part that was overlooked last time was our error measure (or performance measure). To us, “doing well” in the task of learning means that we find some function for which , where is the target function (unknown). However, you can say a function is doing badly or well only with respect to a certain error metric.
Therefore, there must exist (in general) an error measure which is 0 when and increseases if the two functions are “different”. However, this definition is too general: is not a function itself, but a functional. It is not a object easy to deal with, and therefore we always resort to a pointwise error metric, , where is a point.
Examples of pointwise error are the squared error in regression and the binary error in classification:
To obtain a overall we average the pointwise errors for all the examples we have got.
where each example ( is the number of features).
Notice that this time we don’t get a specific point in the training set but instead we pick a completely generic point . Now, instead of a computer average on the sample, we compute the expected value of the error by using the probability distribution generating the examples (like we did in the previous article about feasibility).
The difference is subtle but crucial: is the frequency of errors (in the sample), while is the probability of error (in the input space ).
We can now add this to the learning diagram:
###Error measure in practice: precision and recall
The error measure need not be symmetric. Sometimes precision and recall are much more important. For example:
In case a supermarket uses this to quickly identify customers without needing them to use cards, we can assume that pissing a customer is far more costly than giving them a discount he did not reject prefer recall to precision.
In case the CIA uses this, they definitely prefer to shut down an authorized officer a few times (and have another one try instead if need be) than having an intruder stealing their secrets!
The take-home lesson is that the error measure should be specified by the user. Only the client knows what it wants.
However, when this is not possible, you can resort to:
Plausible measures: squared error is the best when the noise is Gaussian
Friendly measures: closed-form solution, convex optimization.
This causes another addition to the learning diagram:
Machine Learning deals with real data, which often involves people. This means that there can be inconsistencies we may have to deal with.
For example, if we were to build a machine learning system for credit card approval, we may have two “identical” customers (two customers whose features have the very same values) and still have one labeled as “approved” and the other labeled as “rejected”. After all, two different people made the two decisions, and maybe it was a close call. If this is the case, then we have a different value for the same point! This means that the target function is not really a function!
The theory can be (slightly) stretched to accommodate these problems.
Instead of a target function , we now think of a target distribution .
The couple example and output is now generated by the joint distribution .
NOTE: My website does not support a single bar | inside math mode. Just consider as being |.
Our previous deterministic target is included in this theory by defining , where is the noise “responsible” for the confusion. We also define (in other terms, we assume the noise is zero-averaged and symmetric).
The deterministic case is still there: it is sufficient to assume .
Guess what? This changes the learning diagram once more:
There is an important distinction between these distributions:
Let us wrap up what we know so far.
The aim of the game of learning is to find a function such that:
(nevermind about the noise now)
This in turn means that we want
is achieved through:
The first point is achieved through sound statistics about significativity of the training set, while the second is achieved through a good learning algorithm.
Learning is thus split into 2 questions:
- Can we make sure that is close enough to ? This is also called generalization.
- Can we make small enough? This is also called fitness of the model.